Final table strategy: ICM, stack sizes and pay jumps

Why final tables are different

At a final table every elimination moves the remaining players up a place, and each place usually pays more than the one below. These pay jumps mean that surviving has a value of its own, separate from winning chips.

In the early stages of a tournament, doubling your stack roughly doubles your chances. At a final table that is no longer true. Your chips are worth less than their face value, and the gap grows the closer you get to the top.

ICM in one example

The Independent Chip Model (ICM) turns chip stacks into a share of the prize pool. Here is a simple three-player example:

• Stacks: 5,000 / 3,000 / 2,000 (10,000 chips in total)
• Payouts: 50 / 30 / 20 (shares of the prize pool)

The chip leader has 50% of the chips, but ICM gives them only about 38.4% of the prize pool. Working through the same model, the 3,000 stack gets about 32.8% and the 2,000 stack about 28.9%, even though it holds only 20% of the chips.

Why? First place can only be won once, and the short stack is guaranteed at least the 3rd-place payout as long as no one busts them. Chips at the top are worth less each, and chips at the bottom are worth more each. You can try your own stacks with our ICM calculator.

What ICM means at the table

The practical result is simple: losing chips costs you more than winning the same number of chips gains you. So:

• You need more equity to call an all-in than raw pot odds suggest.
• Shoving is relatively stronger than calling, because you can win the blinds without a showdown.
• The players who suffer most are medium stacks facing big stacks.

Playing by stack size

Big stack

You have the most freedom. Opponents who might bust before you are under pressure, so they fold more.

• Open often, especially into medium stacks who cannot call lightly.
• Avoid unnecessary fights with the second-biggest stack. They are the one player who can really damage you.
• Call short-stack shoves more widely, since losing a small pot barely changes your position.

Medium stack

This is the toughest seat. You have something to lose and others can bust you.

• Tighten up when a bigger stack is behind you or has raised.
• Look for spots against shorter stacks.
• Re-shove over loose openers when you have the right hand and the opener is not the big stack.

Short stack

You have the least to lose relative to the pay jumps above you, but you need chips to climb.

• Use push/fold strategy once you are around 15bb or less.
• Shove when you are first in, rather than waiting until the blinds force you.
• If another player is even shorter, you can sometimes fold a little more and let them bust first, but don’t let your stack fall to the point where a shove no longer forces folds.

Pay jumps and short stacks

How much you tighten depends on how big the next pay jump is and how close others are to busting.

• When several short stacks are at risk, medium stacks should tighten, because waiting is valuable.
• When the pay jump is small, play closer to normal chip-accumulation strategy.
• When a very large jump is close (for example, 3rd to 2nd), even strong hands can become folds when you face a shove.

Short-handed and heads-up

As players drop out, ranges widen quickly. With four or five players left, hands like K♣ 9♦ or Q♥ T♥ become reasonable opens from the button. Heads-up, only one pay jump remains, so you can play close to chip-based strategy. See heads-up poker for more.

Studying final tables away from the table

ICM decisions are hard to calculate during a hand, so build your instincts afterwards.

1. Save final-table hands and replay them in PokerCraft once the event ends.
2. Enter the stacks and payouts into the ICM calculator to see how much each player’s share changes if a hand is won or lost.
3. Compare the two outcomes of a big all-in: how much equity you gain by winning versus how much you lose by busting or being crippled.
4. Look for patterns. You will often find that medium stacks should fold more than feels natural, and big stacks should open more.

A handful of reviewed final tables will teach you more about ICM than many played without review.

An example decision

Five players remain. You have 30bb in the big blind. The chip leader (60bb) shoves from the small blind. Two other players have 8bb and 10bb. You hold A♠ T♣.

Against a wide small-blind shove, A♠ T♣ has good equity and would often be a call in a chip-only spot. But if you lose, you bust in 5th while two short stacks were about to be under pressure. If you fold, you keep 29bb and a good chance to move up. ICM usually favours the fold here.

Common mistakes

• Playing the final table like the early stage. Chips aren’t worth their face value any more.
• Medium stacks calling the chip leader. It is the riskiest call at the table.
• Big stacks being passive. Pressure is your main advantage, so use it.
• Short stacks waiting too long. A 5bb shove gets called far more often than a 12bb one.

Quick checklist

1. How big is the next pay jump?
2. Who is shortest, and how close are they to busting?
3. Who covers me, and who do I cover?
4. Am I first in, or facing a shove?